Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3786 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3786 ORD 09:35 → DAY 11:59 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 5810 ORD 15:00 → DAY 17:30 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3786 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:35	DAY 11:59	9%	2%	1.0%	100%
UA 5811 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:29	DAY 13:47	19%	6%	1.3%	67%
AA 4972 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 20:39	DAY 23:01	21%	8%	1.3%	48%
AA 5008 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:59	DAY 15:24	21%	6%	1.4%	79%
UA 5810 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:00	DAY 17:30	23%	7%	1.5%	84%
UA 4594 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:40	DAY 11:04	28%	14%	1.5%	72%
UA 4589 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 21:20	DAY 23:49	31%	14%	7.2%	69%
UA 4484 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:51	DAY 20:22	41%	23%	4.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON