Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4339 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 4339 ORD 05:58 → DCA 09:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2769 ORD 14:55 → DCA 18:00 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4339 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 05:58	DCA 09:15	4%	2%	0.9%	84%
UA 1077 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	DCA 08:54	7%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 482 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	DCA 09:59	8%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 382 United Flight history →	ORD 08:00	DCA 11:01	10%	4%	0.6%	85%
AA 4809 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 10:45	DCA 13:59	10%	3%	0.8%	80%
AA 2965 American Flight history →	ORD 07:02	DCA 10:03	10%	3%	0.9%	76%
AA 2345 American Flight history →	ORD 08:00	DCA 10:59	13%	4%	0.9%	77%
UA 1381 United Flight history →	ORD 10:00	DCA 13:04	13%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 2218 United Flight history →	ORD 09:00	DCA 11:58	14%	4%	0.6%	72%
UA 2668 United Flight history →	ORD 11:15	DCA 14:22	15%	6%	0.6%	69%
UA 752 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	DCA 15:52	15%	7%	0.7%	65%
AA 2398 American Flight history →	ORD 09:42	DCA 12:44	17%	6%	0.9%	71%
UA 1314 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	DCA 17:12	18%	7%	0.7%	56%
UA 456 United Flight history →	ORD 17:00	DCA 20:10	20%	8%	0.7%	59%
UA 1941 United Flight history →	ORD 15:00	DCA 18:12	20%	7%	0.7%	66%
AA 1187 American Flight history →	ORD 20:55	DCA 23:59	20%	8%	0.9%	58%
UA 2160 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	DCA 22:54	20%	6%	0.6%	56%
UA 1369 United Flight history →	ORD 18:00	DCA 21:10	21%	8%	0.6%	50%
UA 5552 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:00	DCA 19:17	22%	11%	1.5%	56%
AA 1675 American Flight history →	ORD 13:20	DCA 16:25	23%	9%	0.9%	59%
AA 1787 American Flight history →	ORD 17:55	DCA 20:59	26%	11%	1.1%	55%
AA 2769 American Flight history →	ORD 14:55	DCA 18:00	27%	8%	0.9%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON