Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2666 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2666 ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 1483 ORD 21:57 → DEN 23:57 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2666 United Flight history →	ORD 05:00	DEN 06:42	3%	1%	0.6%	98%
UA 2806 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	DEN 07:42	6%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 1217 United Flight history →	ORD 07:05	DEN 08:55	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 526 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	DEN 10:31	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 1747 American Flight history →	ORD 06:45	DEN 08:28	11%	4%	0.7%	75%
UA 581 United Flight history →	ORD 10:54	DEN 12:45	13%	4%	0.6%	97%worse than usual
UA 1150 United Flight history →	ORD 12:56	DEN 14:46	13%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 377 United Flight history →	ORD 21:50	DEN 23:48	14%	5%	0.5%	72%
UA 767 United Flight history →	ORD 20:00	DEN 22:01	14%	6%	0.5%	71%
UA 1974 United Flight history →	ORD 18:17	DEN 20:22	15%	6%	0.5%	58%
UA 2803 United Flight history →	ORD 14:33	DEN 16:31	16%	6%	0.6%	76%
UA 2802 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	DEN 15:17	17%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 2769 United Flight history →	ORD 16:12	DEN 18:13	19%	7%	0.6%	61%
AA 1744 American Flight history →	ORD 10:00	DEN 11:44	20%	6%	0.7%	85%
AA 1760 American Flight history →	ORD 12:00	DEN 13:44	21%	7%	0.7%	64%
AA 1387 American Flight history →	ORD 22:35	DEN 00:17	24%	6%	0.7%	57%
AA 1734 American Flight history →	ORD 15:15	DEN 17:00	25%	8%	0.7%	66%
F9 1483 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 21:57	DEN 23:57	28%	8%	1.1%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON