Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 760 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 760 ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1559 ORD 18:28 → DFW 21:05 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 760 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	DFW 07:30	7%	2%	1.0%	89%
UA 539 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	DFW 09:58	9%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 2896 American Flight history →	ORD 06:04	DFW 08:36	11%	3%	0.9%	86%
UA 528 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	DFW 11:29	11%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 441 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	DFW 13:12	13%	4%	0.6%	77%
AA 1902 American Flight history →	ORD 07:00	DFW 09:35	13%	4%	0.8%	77%
UA 2290 United Flight history →	ORD 13:05	DFW 15:48	14%	5%	0.6%	76%
UA 685 United Flight history →	ORD 12:20	DFW 15:03	15%	5%	0.6%	74%
AA 3052 American Flight history →	ORD 09:40	DFW 12:13	16%	6%	0.9%	82%
AA 1555 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	DFW 11:04	17%	5%	0.8%	71%
UA 793 United Flight history →	ORD 15:40	DFW 18:22	17%	7%	0.6%	68%
AA 2222 American Flight history →	ORD 11:00	DFW 13:33	18%	6%	0.9%	71%
F9 3241 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 09:28	DFW 12:20	18%	7%	1.5%	72%
UA 1673 United Flight history →	ORD 19:50	DFW 22:36	19%	6%	0.6%	65%
AA 3544 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:24	DFW 22:06	20%	5%	1.2%	73%
AA 3264 American Flight history →	ORD 11:59	DFW 14:32	21%	7%	0.9%	68%
AA 1120 American Flight history →	ORD 13:25	DFW 15:59	24%	9%	0.9%	49%
AA 2754 American Flight history →	ORD 15:49	DFW 18:25	26%	9%	0.9%	63%
AA 2600 American Flight history →	ORD 20:59	DFW 23:32	27%	9%	1.0%	52%
AA 2257 American Flight history →	ORD 14:59	DFW 17:35	28%	9%	0.9%	65%
AA 2988 American Flight history →	ORD 16:51	DFW 19:28	29%	11%	0.9%	46%
AA 1559 American Flight history →	ORD 18:28	DFW 21:05	32%	11%	0.9%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON