Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1803 at 08:42 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1803 ORD 08:42 → DSM 10:17 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 4973 ORD 16:30 → DSM 18:03 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1803 United Flight history →	ORD 08:42	DSM 10:17	8%	3%	0.6%	95%
AA 4969 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:59	DSM 08:32	10%	4%	1.0%	80%
AA 4676 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 11:29	DSM 13:04	10%	3%	0.8%	89%
UA 1781 United Flight history →	ORD 12:59	DSM 14:27	13%	5%	0.6%	87%
AA 4442 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 22:31	DSM 00:01	14%	5%	0.9%	71%
AA 4102 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:45	DSM 20:18	19%	6%	1.0%	69%
UA 1839 United Flight history →	ORD 21:25	DSM 22:56	19%	7%	0.6%	60%
UA 1325 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	DSM 21:22	20%	8%	0.6%	64%
UA 5230 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:36	DSM 18:09	26%	10%	1.2%	51%
AA 4973 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:30	DSM 18:03	27%	11%	1.5%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON