Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1344 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 1344 ORD 07:20 → DTW 09:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 5232 ORD 17:45 → DTW 20:22 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1344 United Flight history →	ORD 07:20	DTW 09:52	8%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 2039 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:05	DTW 09:30	8%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 4103 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:15	DTW 09:49	9%	2%	1.1%	92%
AA 3498 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 10:30	DTW 13:04	13%	3%	1.0%	86%
AA 3980 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:06	DTW 17:41	16%	4%	1.1%	86%
DL 4456 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:52	DTW 11:23	18%	5%	0.9%	74%
UA 5756 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:50	DTW 13:27	18%	7%	0.8%	77%
DL 3673 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:30	DTW 14:01	18%	7%	0.8%	83%
DL 1716 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:07	DTW 16:40	19%	4%	0.9%	78%
AA 3500 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:11	DTW 20:46	22%	5%	1.2%	61%
UA 5867 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:00	DTW 17:39	24%	8%	0.9%	82%
UA 5255 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 21:20	DTW 23:54	25%	8%	0.9%	64%
UA 2426 United Flight history →	ORD 19:47	DTW 22:19	25%	6%	0.6%	63%
UA 5954 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:59	DTW 18:37	26%	9%	1.0%	67%
DL 2358 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:18	DTW 19:50	27%	7%	0.9%	71%
DL 1084 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:17	DTW 21:52	27%	6%	0.9%	69%
AA 4931 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:49	DTW 21:26	29%	10%	1.2%	57%
UA 5232 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:45	DTW 20:22	29%	11%	1.0%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON