Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4534 ORD 12:30 → ECP 15:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 5473 ORD 10:47 → ECP 13:24 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4534 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:30	ECP 15:03	11%	4%	0.8%	88%
UA 4654 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:05	ECP 09:44	14%	6%	0.7%	86%
UA 5473 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:47	ECP 13:24	20%	9%	1.0%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON