tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5533 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 19:45 ELP 22:28 27% 12% 1.2% 84%worse than usual
AA 3895 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 21:19 ELP 23:45 30% 7% 0.8% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → PHX 06:32AA 2434 2h 12m Phoenix PHX 08:44 → ELP 11:17AA 4978 · flown by SkyWest 7h 17m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → ELP 13:20DL 1002 8h 50m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → ORD 05:30 → IAH 08:18UA 2310 2h 31m Houston IAH 10:49 → ELP 11:51UA 6309 · flown by Mesa 7h 21m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 2h 50m Denver DEN 11:45 → ELP 13:35UA 792 7h 30m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → ORD 10:25 → IAH 13:23UA 2638 3h 35m Houston IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 8h 37m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896 3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ELP 13:08AA 3506 · flown by Envoy 8h 04m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → ELP 11:27AA 2210 7h 27m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 2h 30m Houston IAH 21:40 → ELP 22:44UA 4010 · flown by Mesa 7h 39m 95% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 47m Houston IAH 19:57 → ELP 21:01UA 4009 · flown by Mesa 5h 56m 70% 56%
AmericanDetails → ORD 18:51 → PHX 20:36AA 866 1h 09m Phoenix PHX 21:45 → ELP 23:59AA 3874 · flown by Envoy 6h 08m 75% 51%
AmericanDetails → ORD 14:59 → DFW 17:35AA 2257 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → ELP 19:19AA 2034 5h 20m 69% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON