Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Portland, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Eugene on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2483 United Flight history →	ORD 08:53	EUG 11:37	14%	4%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Eugene is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ORD 05:00 → PHX 06:32AA 2434	3h 49m Phoenix	PHX 10:21 → EUG 13:06AA 4114 · flown by Envoy	10h 06m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	ORD 17:42 → SEA 20:21AS 337	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	8h 17m	94%	84%
Alaska Details →	ORD 07:20 → PDX 09:45AS 413	1h 14m Portland	PDX 10:59 → EUG 11:57AS 3063 · flown by SkyWest	6h 37m	93%	82%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 33m Denver	DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318	8h 57m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	2h 03m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	8h 03m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	ORD 17:55 → SEA 20:34DL 637	2h 01m Seattle	SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest	7h 56m	96%	79%
American Details →	ORD 15:22 → PHX 17:05AA 2624	3h 35m Phoenix	PHX 20:40 → EUG 23:17AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	9h 55m	96%	79%
Alaska Details →	ORD 06:00 → SEA 08:38AS 715	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 11:37 → EUG 13:01AS 3360 · flown by SkyWest	9h 01m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ORD 18:42 → SEA 21:34AS 583	1h 15m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	7h 17m	74%	66%
Alaska Details →	ORD 08:02 → SEA 10:37AS 587	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 11:37 → EUG 13:01AS 3360 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	67%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON