Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 563 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 563 ORD 07:10 → EWR 10:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3253 ORD 17:36 → EWR 21:00 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 563 United Flight history →	ORD 07:10	EWR 10:30	5%	2%	0.8%	91%
UA 2295 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	EWR 09:12	5%	2%	0.8%	94%
AA 3170 American Flight history →	ORD 06:42	EWR 10:00	9%	3%	1.2%	81%
UA 2301 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	EWR 12:06	9%	3%	0.9%	78%
UA 1856 United Flight history →	ORD 10:51	EWR 14:17	12%	5%	0.8%	80%
UA 606 United Flight history →	ORD 12:11	EWR 15:39	15%	7%	0.9%	78%
UA 759 United Flight history →	ORD 20:07	EWR 23:39	18%	8%	1.0%	65%
UA 1209 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	EWR 00:53	19%	7%	1.0%	68%
AA 2250 American Flight history →	ORD 10:10	EWR 13:30	20%	7%	1.2%	64%
UA 2759 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	EWR 16:55	20%	9%	1.1%	47%
UA 2329 United Flight history →	ORD 14:25	EWR 18:00	23%	10%	1.0%	75%
UA 534 United Flight history →	ORD 18:28	EWR 21:58	24%	10%	0.9%	58%
UA 485 United Flight history →	ORD 16:31	EWR 20:07	26%	10%	1.0%	57%
UA 2171 United Flight history →	ORD 15:57	EWR 19:33	28%	10%	1.2%	27%
AA 2549 American Flight history →	ORD 20:09	EWR 23:30	28%	12%	1.4%	45%
AA 1936 American Flight history →	ORD 13:10	EWR 16:30	30%	10%	1.5%	65%
AA 3253 American Flight history →	ORD 17:36	EWR 21:00	37%	16%	1.6%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON