Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Anchorage, leaving 10:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2223 United Flight history →	ORD 16:00	FAI 19:39	21%	5%	0.8%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ORD 10:00 → ANC 13:42AS 1825	1h 46m Anchorage	ANC 15:28 → FAI 16:31AS 2103 · flown by Horizon	9h 31m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	ORD 12:27 → MSP 14:10DL 1567	4h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → FAI 20:49DL 1055	11h 22m	97%	77%
United Details →	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	2h 53m Denver	DEN 19:24 → FAI 22:59UA 250	11h 26m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 10:45 → FAI 13:42DL 1061	9h 47m	95%	71%
Alaska Details →	ORD 06:00 → SEA 08:38AS 715	3h 22m Seattle	SEA 12:00 → FAI 14:55AS 1507	11h 55m	99%	66%
Alaska Details →	ORD 17:42 → SEA 20:21AS 337	3h 06m Seattle	SEA 23:27 → FAI 02:15 +1AS 1512	11h 33m	96%	61%
Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	2h 06m Seattle	SEA 20:28 → FAI 23:18AS 1880	10h 35m	92%	59%
Delta Details →	ORD 17:55 → SEA 20:34DL 637	1h 07m Seattle	SEA 21:41 → FAI 00:30 +1DL 2186	9h 35m	77%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON