Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2333 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2333 ORD 08:40 → FCA 11:29 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 6021 ORD 19:47 → FCA 22:55 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2333 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	FCA 11:29	15%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 1833 American Flight history →	ORD 09:45	FCA 12:46	16%	5%	0.7%	75%
AA 1844 American Flight history →	ORD 13:15	FCA 16:09	20%	7%	0.7%	67%
UA 6021 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:47	FCA 22:55	26%	9%	1.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON