Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1421 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 1421 ORD 07:00 → FLL 11:13 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 864 ORD 14:35 → FLL 18:49 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1421 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:13	9%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 1851 American Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:04	12%	4%	0.9%	88%
UA 279 United Flight history →	ORD 10:59	FLL 15:13	19%	5%	0.8%	76%
B6 664 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:14	20%	7%	2.2%	89%
UA 2635 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	FLL 18:15	24%	8%	0.9%	69%
AA 672 American Flight history →	ORD 12:35	FLL 16:43	24%	8%	1.1%	56%
UA 2294 United Flight history →	ORD 17:59	FLL 22:15	26%	11%	2.6%	66%
F9 2205 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 08:05	FLL 12:22	27%	9%	1.5%	68%
B6 864 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 14:35	FLL 18:49	35%	16%	2.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON