Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1842 ORD 21:30 → FSD 23:31 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time Riskiest AA 4990 ORD 14:19 → FSD 16:13 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1842 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	FSD 23:31	15%	7%	0.7%	60%
AA 4989 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:30	FSD 11:30	15%	7%	0.8%	72%
AA 4942 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 22:30	FSD 00:18	20%	9%	1.0%	61%
AA 4990 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:19	FSD 16:13	21%	11%	1.0%	67%
UA 4443 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:40	FSD 14:32	13%	9%	1.4%	87%
UA 4462 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:40	FSD 10:41	17%	4%	0.0%	83%
UA 4404 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:00	FSD 17:53	38%	20%	5.4%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON