Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 14:02, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching Spokane on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5612 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:27	GEG 11:48	15%	5%	0.7%	89%
AA 814 American Flight history →	ORD 11:30	GEG 13:39	19%	7%	0.6%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Spokane is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 33m Denver	DEN 11:15 → GEG 12:37UA 295	8h 37m	100%	88%
United Details →	ORD 08:40 → DEN 10:31UA 526	3h 15m Denver	DEN 13:46 → GEG 15:11UA 324	8h 31m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717	2h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 10:30 → GEG 11:39DL 1853	7h 09m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → GEG 11:40DL 787	8h 10m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	ORD 08:27 → MSP 10:02DL 1554	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 12:19 → GEG 13:21DL 2437	6h 54m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556	3h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 13:00 → GEG 15:35DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest	10h 06m	100%	85%
Alaska Details →	ORD 06:00 → SEA 08:38AS 715	1h 17m Seattle	SEA 09:55 → GEG 11:00AS 2200 · flown by Horizon	7h 00m	93%	84%
Alaska Details →	ORD 08:02 → SEA 10:37AS 587	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 14:22 → GEG 15:25AS 2074 · flown by Horizon	9h 23m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORD 14:02 → SLC 16:37DL 2249	53m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → GEG 18:13DL 1024	6h 11m	67%	54%
Alaska Details →	ORD 17:42 → SEA 20:21AS 337	1h 09m Seattle	SEA 21:30 → GEG 22:36AS 2071 · flown by Horizon	6h 54m	66%	46%
Alaska Details →	ORD 08:02 → SEA 10:37AS 587	46m Seattle	SEA 11:23 → GEG 12:29AS 449	6h 27m	50%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON