Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3553 at 11:56 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 3553 ORD 11:56 → GRR 14:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1096 ORD 22:32 → GRR 00:36 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3553 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 11:56	GRR 14:05	9%	4%	1.2%	91%
AA 6391 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:59	GRR 09:11	10%	4%	1.2%	86%
AA 4117 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:56	GRR 17:06	12%	4%	1.3%	79%
UA 1297 United Flight history →	ORD 10:37	GRR 12:50	12%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 5668 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:50	GRR 11:08	13%	4%	1.1%	94%
AA 4729 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:14	GRR 19:24	16%	7%	1.0%	62%
UA 5250 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:55	GRR 16:07	17%	8%	1.1%	58%
UA 1178 United Flight history →	ORD 18:02	GRR 20:12	19%	8%	0.6%	41%
UA 5303 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 21:40	GRR 23:57	22%	7%	1.2%	67%
AA 1096 American Flight history →	ORD 22:32	GRR 00:36	27%	10%	0.9%	40%
UA 4598 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:40	GRR 14:55	22%	15%	0.0%	78%
UA 4592 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 05:59	GRR 08:07	23%	13%	0.0%	77%
UA 4417 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:40	GRR 18:58	29%	12%	11.1%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON