Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3744 ORD 11:15 → GSO 14:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 3932 ORD 15:08 → GSO 18:12 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3744 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 11:15	GSO 14:19	10%	3%	1.0%	83%
AA 3648 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:29	GSO 21:36	14%	4%	1.0%	78%
AA 3932 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:08	GSO 18:12	14%	4%	1.1%	86%
UA 4619 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:55	GSO 16:57	31%	17%	2.7%	69%
UA 4553 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 18:15	GSO 21:23	41%	20%	4.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON