Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5330 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 5330 ORD 06:55 → GSP 09:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest UA 5275 ORD 18:17 → GSP 21:26 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5330 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:55	GSP 09:55	7%	3%	0.8%	76%
AA 3556 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:00	GSP 11:01	7%	3%	0.9%	94%
AA 3559 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:48	GSP 18:50	15%	5%	0.9%	78%
UA 5403 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:55	GSP 17:00	17%	8%	0.8%	77%
AA 3607 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 20:35	GSP 23:25	18%	6%	1.0%	70%
UA 5275 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:17	GSP 21:26	20%	10%	0.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON