Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3862 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 10:00	HHH 13:33	13%	5%	0.7%	90%
UA 3581 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 10:45	HHH 14:21	15%	4%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hilton Head Island on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hilton Head Island is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 08:03 → ATL 11:06DL 2426	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 14:11 → HHH 15:29DL 5830 · flown by Republic	6h 26m	98%	86%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	1h 47m Charlotte	CLT 09:57 → HHH 11:17AA 3563 · flown by Envoy	5h 10m	97%	85%
American Details →	ORD 06:30 → CLT 09:37AA 1784	3h 23m Charlotte	CLT 13:00 → HHH 14:16AA 3562 · flown by Envoy	6h 46m	99%	85%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → EWR 09:12UA 2295	1h 25m Newark	EWR 10:37 → HHH 12:52UA 3676 · flown by Republic	5h 52m	96%	84%
American Details →	ORD 09:00 → CLT 12:12AA 2530	2h 57m Charlotte	CLT 15:09 → HHH 16:25AA 3560 · flown by Envoy	6h 25m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON