tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 219 United Flight history → ORD 09:30 HNL 13:32 15% 5% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 12h 50m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717 2h 06m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 12h 13m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 06:00 → JFK 09:24DL 5741 · flown by Republic 1h 06m New York JFK 10:30 → HNL 15:21DL 636 14h 21m 93% 79%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:00 → LAX 09:33UA 2361 1h 32m Los Angeles LAX 11:05 → HNL 13:56UA 1224 11h 56m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → ORD 10:30 → LAX 13:09UA 1044 3h 56m Los Angeles LAX 17:05 → HNL 19:44UA 1170 14h 14m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 3h 05m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 13h 08m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → PHX 06:32AA 2434 2h 14m Phoenix PHX 08:46 → HNL 12:30AA 693 12h 30m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556 3h 55m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 14h 14m 100% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON