Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3812 ORD 08:10 → HPN 11:29 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 3752 ORD 19:39 → HPN 22:59 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3812 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:10	HPN 11:29	9%	2%	1.0%	83%
AA 3499 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:29	HPN 21:57	13%	6%	1.1%	75%
AA 4200 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 12:41	HPN 15:59	14%	4%	1.0%	78%
AA 4112 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:55	HPN 17:15	14%	4%	0.9%	74%
AA 3752 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:39	HPN 22:59	15%	5%	0.9%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON