Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1689 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 1689 ORD 06:30 → IAD 09:24 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 2202 ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1689 United Flight history →	ORD 06:30	IAD 09:24	4%	1%	0.6%	100%
UA 2277 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	IAD 11:52	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 1869 United Flight history →	ORD 11:07	IAD 14:12	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 2794 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	IAD 16:30	14%	6%	0.6%	76%
UA 2437 United Flight history →	ORD 15:53	IAD 19:02	14%	6%	0.6%	71%
UA 2766 United Flight history →	ORD 21:40	IAD 00:45	15%	5%	0.6%	69%
UA 2202 United Flight history →	ORD 18:12	IAD 21:22	18%	6%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON