Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 14–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4809 ORD 08:52 → ICT 11:12 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest UA 5691 ORD 12:41 → ICT 14:53 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 4809 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:52	ICT 11:12	14%	5%	0.7%	77%
AA 5007 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:00	ICT 12:09	20%	7%	0.7%	72%
AA 3471 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:08	ICT 17:20	21%	5%	1.4%	83%
UA 2762 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	ICT 23:31	22%	7%	0.6%	62%
AA 3913 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:04	ICT 23:15	24%	6%	1.0%	69%
UA 5691 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:41	ICT 14:53	24%	8%	0.7%	75%
UA 4591 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 15:35	ICT 17:43	28%	17%	4.2%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON