tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 6417 at 10:50, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 6417 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 10:50 IDA 13:23 21% 9% 0.6% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Idaho Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Idaho Falls is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 3h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 13:30 → IDA 14:36DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest 7h 51m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666 1h 23m Denver DEN 08:05 → IDA 09:50UA 5374 · flown by SkyWest 5h 50m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 2h 50m Denver DEN 11:45 → IDA 13:25UA 2383 7h 20m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → ORD 08:40 → DEN 10:31UA 526 3h 19m Denver DEN 13:50 → IDA 15:34UA 5950 · flown by SkyWest 7h 54m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:12 → IDA 12:23AA 6219 · flown by SkyWest 8h 23m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 08:02 → SEA 10:37AS 587 2h 08m Seattle SEA 12:45 → IDA 15:37AS 3490 · flown by SkyWest 8h 35m 93% 75%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803 2h 49m Denver DEN 19:20 → IDA 21:07UA 5989 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → ORD 10:54 → DEN 12:45UA 581 2h 50m Denver DEN 15:35 → IDA 17:19UA 5322 · flown by SkyWest 7h 25m 87% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ORD 12:56 → DEN 14:46UA 1150 49m Denver DEN 15:35 → IDA 17:19UA 5322 · flown by SkyWest 5h 23m 73% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON