Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3550 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 3550 ORD 07:07 → IND 09:28 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1951 ORD 17:00 → IND 19:11 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3550 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 07:07	IND 09:28	4%	2%	0.9%	88%
AA 4439 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 06:45	IND 09:01	5%	2%	1.0%	89%
UA 3702 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:47	IND 15:03	12%	3%	1.0%	81%
AA 4363 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 22:29	IND 00:50	12%	4%	1.1%	77%
AA 4594 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:47	IND 23:06	12%	5%	1.0%	82%
UA 3707 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:45	IND 22:05	14%	5%	0.9%	76%
UA 3418 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:44	IND 19:01	14%	5%	1.0%	80%
UA 3660 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:25	IND 23:44	14%	4%	1.0%	80%
AA 2898 American Flight history →	ORD 09:27	IND 11:37	15%	4%	1.1%	90%
AA 3596 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 12:49	IND 15:03	16%	3%	0.8%	89%
UA 3455 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:55	IND 20:13	16%	6%	1.0%	78%
UA 587 United Flight history →	ORD 14:12	IND 16:30	17%	7%	0.8%	74%
UA 5968 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:35	IND 12:54	17%	7%	1.1%	81%
UA 5985 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:35	IND 17:52	23%	10%	1.2%	67%
AA 1951 American Flight history →	ORD 17:00	IND 19:11	29%	11%	1.2%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON