Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 307 at 09:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 307 ORD 09:05 → JAC 11:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 378 ORD 16:21 → JAC 18:42 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 307 United Flight history →	ORD 09:05	JAC 11:35	12%	4%	0.6%	94%
AA 3331 American Flight history →	ORD 09:36	JAC 12:00	17%	5%	0.8%	77%
AA 1970 American Flight history →	ORD 13:05	JAC 15:24	22%	8%	0.8%	76%
UA 378 United Flight history →	ORD 16:21	JAC 18:42	22%	8%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON