Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4740 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 4740 ORD 09:10 → JAX 12:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2096 ORD 19:29 → JAX 23:05 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4740 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:10	JAX 12:51	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
UA 4672 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:05	JAX 10:51	10%	4%	0.8%	84%
UA 2427 United Flight history →	ORD 10:42	JAX 14:27	12%	4%	0.7%	80%
UA 5807 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:00	JAX 17:49	19%	8%	1.1%	76%
UA 2443 United Flight history →	ORD 18:19	JAX 21:59	20%	8%	1.1%	66%
AA 3317 American Flight history →	ORD 13:46	JAX 17:18	26%	9%	1.1%	66%
AA 2096 American Flight history →	ORD 19:29	JAX 23:05	28%	11%	1.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON