Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5741 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 5741 ORD 06:00 → JFK 09:24 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 406 ORD 17:27 → JFK 21:00 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5741 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 06:00	JFK 09:24	7%	2%	0.9%	89%
B6 1206 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 06:00	JFK 09:17	12%	3%	1.4%	81%
AA 4350 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 11:00	JFK 14:39	12%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 4371 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:50	JFK 16:28	14%	5%	1.0%	71%
B6 906 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 09:42	JFK 12:59	18%	4%	1.2%	88%
AA 1421 American Flight history →	ORD 16:30	JFK 20:04	29%	12%	1.4%	57%
B6 406 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 17:27	JFK 21:00	32%	10%	1.6%	80%worse than usual
DL 4725 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:05	JFK 13:30	27%	16%	6.2%	73%
DL 5035 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:00	JFK 16:37	29%	14%	11.6%	71%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 18:00	JFK 21:40	51%	22%	23.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON