Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 574 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 574 ORD 07:11 → LAS 09:19 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 1880 ORD 21:59 → LAS 23:54 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 574 United Flight history →	ORD 07:11	LAS 09:19	7%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 723 United Flight history →	ORD 09:00	LAS 11:08	12%	4%	0.6%	89%
AA 2020 American Flight history →	ORD 06:29	LAS 08:19	13%	3%	0.9%	87%
UA 2440 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	LAS 13:05	15%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 777 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	LAS 14:45	19%	6%	0.6%	76%
F9 2145 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 07:15	LAS 09:23	19%	6%	2.1%	63%
UA 1875 United Flight history →	ORD 15:54	LAS 17:57	23%	9%	0.6%	75%
UA 1215 United Flight history →	ORD 16:30	LAS 18:33	25%	9%	0.6%	67%
UA 2242 United Flight history →	ORD 19:50	LAS 21:59	27%	8%	0.6%	78%
AA 2016 American Flight history →	ORD 10:26	LAS 12:22	29%	7%	0.9%	73%
AA 2877 American Flight history →	ORD 13:41	LAS 15:36	35%	11%	0.9%	65%
AA 3292 American Flight history →	ORD 17:31	LAS 19:29	35%	14%	1.1%	58%
AA 1465 American Flight history →	ORD 20:59	LAS 22:54	36%	12%	1.0%	48%
AA 1880 American Flight history →	ORD 21:59	LAS 23:54	38%	11%	1.0%	47%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 08:40 → DEN 10:31UA 526	51m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	5h 44m	81%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON