Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2361 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 2361 ORD 07:00 → LAX 09:33 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2364 ORD 19:08 → LAX 21:33 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2361 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LAX 09:33	12%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 607 American Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LAX 08:20	12%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 2373 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LAX 08:27	13%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1556 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:29	LAX 10:00	13%	3%	0.5%	80%
AA 1628 American Flight history →	ORD 06:51	LAX 09:14	14%	4%	0.8%	70%
UA 1363 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	LAX 15:34	16%	5%	0.6%	83%
UA 2814 United Flight history →	ORD 08:48	LAX 11:26	16%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 2012 American Flight history →	ORD 08:10	LAX 10:35	17%	5%	0.8%	70%
UA 1044 United Flight history →	ORD 10:30	LAX 13:09	18%	4%	0.6%	81%
AA 1979 American Flight history →	ORD 09:00	LAX 11:21	18%	5%	0.8%	74%
UA 374 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	LAX 17:05	19%	7%	0.6%	80%
AA 2718 American Flight history →	ORD 12:00	LAX 14:21	19%	8%	0.8%	73%
UA 576 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	LAX 18:20	20%	6%	0.6%	76%
DL 967 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:42	LAX 17:14	20%	6%	0.5%	68%
UA 2499 United Flight history →	ORD 20:18	LAX 22:55	21%	6%	0.5%	58%
UA 661 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	LAX 00:09	22%	6%	0.6%	64%
UA 600 United Flight history →	ORD 16:45	LAX 19:16	22%	7%	0.6%	68%
UA 1967 United Flight history →	ORD 18:10	LAX 20:40	23%	6%	0.5%	69%
DL 2298 Delta Flight history →	ORD 18:35	LAX 21:12	26%	7%	0.5%	76%
AA 529 American Flight history →	ORD 15:21	LAX 17:43	27%	11%	0.7%	59%
AA 1209 American Flight history →	ORD 22:30	LAX 00:52	28%	9%	0.7%	53%
AA 1437 American Flight history →	ORD 17:10	LAX 19:33	29%	10%	0.7%	55%
AA 613 American Flight history →	ORD 20:49	LAX 23:13	30%	9%	0.7%	51%
F9 2445 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 21:13	LAX 23:57	31%	11%	2.2%	65%
AA 2364 American Flight history →	ORD 19:08	LAX 21:33	34%	10%	0.7%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217	1h 07m Denver	DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405	6h 29m	96%	84%
United Details →	ORD 12:56 → DEN 14:46UA 1150	57m Denver	DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195	6h 19m	87%	72%
United Details →	ORD 16:02 → PHX 17:53UA 2053	1h 01m Phoenix	PHX 18:54 → LAX 20:31UA 4722 · flown by SkyWest	6h 29m	79%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON