Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 34 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 327 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 327 ORD 06:00 → LGA 09:17 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1724 ORD 18:29 → LGA 21:50 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 327 American Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LGA 09:17	8%	2%	1.2%	91%
DL 2767 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LGA 09:09	8%	2%	1.1%	92%
UA 2617 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LGA 09:11	8%	2%	0.9%	89%
UA 1657 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:17	11%	3%	0.9%	82%
DL 2633 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:14	12%	3%	1.1%	77%
AA 2723 American Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:16	12%	3%	1.0%	79%
UA 2092 United Flight history →	ORD 08:00	LGA 11:17	15%	3%	0.9%	86%
AA 2079 American Flight history →	ORD 08:00	LGA 11:19	16%	3%	1.0%	82%
DL 2252 Delta Flight history →	ORD 09:30	LGA 12:46	16%	4%	1.0%	90%
UA 669 United Flight history →	ORD 10:03	LGA 13:26	17%	6%	0.9%	82%
UA 709 United Flight history →	ORD 09:00	LGA 12:23	17%	5%	0.9%	75%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history →	ORD 10:30	LGA 13:48	18%	6%	1.1%	72%
UA 1775 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	LGA 14:23	19%	7%	0.9%	69%
DL 2985 Delta Flight history →	ORD 11:30	LGA 15:00	19%	6%	1.1%	78%
UA 2267 United Flight history →	ORD 12:00	LGA 15:23	21%	8%	0.9%	69%
AA 388 American Flight history →	ORD 10:20	LGA 13:34	21%	7%	0.9%	71%
AA 2059 American Flight history →	ORD 11:00	LGA 14:19	22%	8%	1.2%	73%
UA 2189 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	LGA 16:22	25%	9%	0.9%	65%
DL 2503 Delta Flight history →	ORD 20:10	LGA 23:44	28%	11%	1.2%	58%
UA 1821 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	LGA 17:22	29%	10%	1.2%	65%
UA 1617 United Flight history →	ORD 15:00	LGA 18:22	29%	9%	1.0%	59%
UA 2605 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	LGA 21:54	30%	12%	0.9%	54%
DL 2239 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:28	LGA 17:50	31%	10%	1.2%	63%
UA 1655 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	LGA 23:15	31%	10%	0.9%	50%
UA 2306 United Flight history →	ORD 17:00	LGA 20:22	33%	13%	1.0%	51%
AA 1478 American Flight history →	ORD 13:14	LGA 16:34	33%	10%	1.1%	63%
UA 1623 United Flight history →	ORD 18:00	LGA 21:25	34%	12%	1.2%	41%
UA 2809 United Flight history →	ORD 16:00	LGA 19:22	34%	12%	1.2%	42%
DL 1390 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:05	LGA 22:34	34%	15%	1.2%	64%
DL 2336 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:35	LGA 21:00	36%	14%	1.3%	51%
AA 3050 American Flight history →	ORD 14:59	LGA 18:19	37%	11%	1.4%	65%
AA 679 American Flight history →	ORD 19:59	LGA 23:21	38%	12%	1.2%	63%
AA 2086 American Flight history →	ORD 16:30	LGA 19:53	39%	14%	1.4%	50%
AA 1724 American Flight history →	ORD 18:29	LGA 21:50	43%	15%	1.4%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON