Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3625 ORD 08:00 → LIT 09:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 5228 ORD 21:30 → LIT 23:37 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3625 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:00	LIT 09:59	10%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 3398 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 11:45	LIT 13:41	13%	4%	0.8%	90%
AA 3561 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 20:02	LIT 22:01	16%	5%	0.7%	72%
AA 4062 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 16:59	LIT 18:59	16%	6%	0.9%	71%
UA 5692 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:54	LIT 14:55	16%	9%	1.0%	70%
UA 5228 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 21:30	LIT 23:37	18%	6%	1.1%	68%
UA 4512 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:40	LIT 10:38	23%	10%	0.5%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON