Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1484 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1484 ORD 08:40 → MCI 10:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 6399 ORD 17:30 → MCI 19:14 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1484 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	MCI 10:29	10%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 6005 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:55	MCI 08:42	10%	4%	1.2%	87%
AA 6250 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:45	MCI 08:32	11%	3%	1.2%	75%
AA 4745 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 14:58	MCI 16:49	12%	4%	0.8%	87%
UA 561 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	MCI 14:20	12%	5%	0.6%	80%
AA 3695 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:35	MCI 00:19	13%	4%	1.4%	69%
UA 1634 United Flight history →	ORD 14:12	MCI 16:00	15%	6%	0.6%	75%
UA 5218 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:25	MCI 12:22	15%	5%	0.9%	84%
AA 6249 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:16	MCI 13:00	16%	6%	0.9%	76%
UA 1851 United Flight history →	ORD 20:05	MCI 21:54	16%	8%	0.6%	57%
UA 664 United Flight history →	ORD 15:52	MCI 17:36	18%	6%	0.6%	68%
UA 4723 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 21:25	MCI 23:17	21%	8%	1.3%	59%
AA 6399 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:30	MCI 19:14	25%	11%	1.5%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON