Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 284 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 284 ORD 06:00 → MCO 09:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 486 ORD 17:12 → MCO 21:05 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 284 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	MCO 09:40	6%	2%	14.9%	95%
UA 2280 United Flight history →	ORD 07:20	MCO 11:15	8%	3%	15.5%	89%
AA 2067 American Flight history →	ORD 07:00	MCO 10:48	10%	3%	15.7%	94%
UA 1643 United Flight history →	ORD 09:12	MCO 13:13	12%	4%	16.7%	85%
UA 2008 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	MCO 15:03	15%	7%	17.5%	75%
UA 1811 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	MCO 16:43	16%	8%	16.7%	78%
F9 2792 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 10:16	MCO 14:23	19%	9%	19.3%	74%
UA 609 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	MCO 17:57	20%	8%	17.3%	76%
AA 2066 American Flight history →	ORD 10:30	MCO 14:20	21%	8%	17.2%	69%
AA 2089 American Flight history →	ORD 12:01	MCO 15:51	24%	9%	17.4%	54%
UA 1382 United Flight history →	ORD 17:56	MCO 21:55	26%	10%	17.3%	64%
F9 3044 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 17:13	MCO 21:25	29%	17%	16.4%	73%
AA 2064 American Flight history →	ORD 15:08	MCO 19:03	31%	12%	17.5%	55%
AA 3176 American Flight history →	ORD 18:45	MCO 22:40	34%	15%	17.0%	53%
AA 486 American Flight history →	ORD 17:12	MCO 21:05	35%	14%	16.9%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON