Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4746 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 4746 ORD 08:05 → MDT 11:11 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3243 ORD 16:00 → MDT 19:05 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4746 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:05	MDT 11:11	8%	2%	0.8%	93%
AA 4640 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:18	MDT 00:22	15%	3%	0.9%	80%
UA 4798 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:29	MDT 13:34	17%	5%	0.9%	77%
UA 1746 United Flight history →	ORD 13:57	MDT 16:56	19%	6%	0.7%	71%
UA 1557 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	MDT 21:29	25%	7%	0.7%	60%
AA 3243 American Flight history →	ORD 16:00	MDT 19:05	26%	8%	1.0%	75%
UA 4173 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:40	MDT 19:48	26%	15%	2.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON