Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3683 ORD 08:05 → MEM 09:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 4742 ORD 15:59 → MEM 17:58 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3683 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:05	MEM 09:58	11%	2%	0.9%	91%
UA 5593 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:00	MEM 11:05	12%	4%	0.6%	78%
AA 4647 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 15:40	MEM 17:36	15%	5%	1.1%	75%
AA 3675 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 12:15	MEM 14:04	15%	3%	1.0%	84%
UA 5414 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:40	MEM 14:42	16%	8%	0.7%	72%
UA 2317 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	MEM 23:21	17%	7%	0.8%	60%
AA 3945 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:30	MEM 00:18	18%	5%	1.5%	71%
UA 4742 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:59	MEM 17:58	18%	10%	0.7%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON