Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2984 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2984 ORD 05:00 → MIA 09:09 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2910 ORD 16:05 → MIA 20:26 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2984 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	MIA 09:09	6%	2%	1.2%	94%
AA 1380 American Flight history →	ORD 06:10	MIA 10:22	11%	2%	1.5%	89%
UA 1358 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	MIA 11:24	13%	3%	0.9%	85%
AA 835 American Flight history →	ORD 06:59	MIA 11:12	15%	3%	1.4%	81%
AA 1250 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	MIA 12:45	23%	4%	2.3%	75%
UA 1620 United Flight history →	ORD 10:33	MIA 14:57	27%	6%	1.7%	77%
UA 2180 United Flight history →	ORD 18:05	MIA 22:27	30%	10%	1.0%	69%
AA 1474 American Flight history →	ORD 10:05	MIA 14:18	31%	7%	2.1%	82%worse than usual
AA 2690 American Flight history →	ORD 17:59	MIA 22:20	31%	12%	1.6%	45%
AA 3148 American Flight history →	ORD 14:30	MIA 18:49	34%	10%	1.4%	51%
AA 2910 American Flight history →	ORD 16:05	MIA 20:26	34%	11%	1.5%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON