Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5581 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 5581 ORD 05:59 → MKE 07:00 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 6211 ORD 17:21 → MKE 18:23 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5581 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 05:59	MKE 07:00	13%	3%	1.5%	71%
AA 6263 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:59	MKE 08:02	13%	4%	1.5%	81%
YX 4409 Republic	ORD 11:42	MKE 12:44	13%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 5842 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:45	MKE 09:53	19%	6%	1.4%	73%
UA 5720 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:47	MKE 12:48	23%	9%	1.4%	75%
UA 5362 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 21:20	MKE 22:29	23%	7%	1.4%	69%
AA 6357 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 21:20	MKE 22:21	24%	8%	1.5%	51%
UA 4711 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:45	MKE 20:56	26%	8%	1.6%	70%
UA 5933 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:30	MKE 14:36	26%	10%	1.6%	67%
UA 5956 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:15	MKE 19:26	27%	8%	1.7%	66%
AA 4888 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:59	MKE 21:01	27%	9%	1.7%	53%
AA 4941 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:58	MKE 19:59	28%	10%	1.7%	64%
UA 5555 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:45	MKE 18:48	28%	9%	1.8%	52%
AA 6211 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:21	MKE 18:23	29%	10%	1.9%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON