Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4018 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4018 ORD 06:40 → MSN 07:51 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 4740 ORD 17:45 → MSN 18:56 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4018 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 06:40	MSN 07:51	6%	2%	1.1%	93%
AA 3437 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 11:22	MSN 12:32	9%	3%	1.1%	89%
AA 3716 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:17	MSN 14:25	11%	3%	1.1%	84%
UA 2093 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	MSN 09:47	11%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 3728 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 23:00	MSN 00:10	11%	4%	1.2%	74%
UA 5843 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:35	MSN 11:49	14%	6%	1.3%	91%
AA 3717 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:00	MSN 18:12	15%	6%	1.2%	70%
UA 630 United Flight history →	ORD 22:00	MSN 23:12	16%	7%	0.6%	62%
UA 5509 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:55	MSN 15:05	18%	9%	1.3%	78%
UA 5768 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:45	MSN 20:57	22%	11%	1.3%	71%
UA 4740 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:45	MSN 18:56	22%	12%	1.4%	50%
UA 4194 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:01	MSN 17:10	29%	10%	7.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON