Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3718 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:41	MSO 12:33	10%	3%	0.7%	92%
UA 1180 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	MSO 11:32	11%	4%	0.6%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 33m Denver	DEN 11:15 → MSO 13:19UA 1342	8h 19m	100%	84%
United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666	58m Denver	DEN 07:40 → MSO 09:55UA 4697 · flown by SkyWest	5h 55m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	ORD 08:27 → MSP 10:02DL 1554	2h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSO 14:38DL 362	7h 11m	97%	83%
United Details →	ORD 08:40 → DEN 10:31UA 526	3h 29m Denver	DEN 14:00 → MSO 16:20UA 4783 · flown by SkyWest	8h 40m	100%	82%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:54 → MSO 13:17AA 2144	9h 17m	99%	81%
American Details →	ORD 14:59 → DFW 17:35AA 2257	2h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:06 → MSO 22:40AA 4063 · flown by Envoy	8h 41m	90%	74%
Delta Details →	ORD 17:54 → MSP 19:31DL 1306	2h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 21:52 → MSO 23:44DL 2610	6h 50m	94%	72%
United Details →	ORD 14:30 → LAX 17:05UA 374	3h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 20:20 → MSO 23:56UA 5370 · flown by SkyWest	10h 26m	99%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON