Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2232 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2232 ORD 07:00 → MSP 08:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 1306 ORD 17:54 → MSP 19:31 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2232 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	MSP 08:41	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 2805 United Flight history →	ORD 08:50	MSP 10:36	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 1717 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:30	MSP 08:04	9%	3%	0.8%	86%
AA 4162 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:15	MSP 10:01	10%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 3375 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 11:47	MSP 13:32	12%	4%	0.8%	88%
AA 4727 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 13:40	MSP 15:29	13%	6%	0.9%	82%
AA 4472 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 22:36	MSP 00:22	14%	6%	1.1%	73%
UA 5684 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:25	MSP 12:17	14%	6%	0.7%	79%
DL 1554 Delta Flight history →	ORD 08:27	MSP 10:02	14%	3%	0.7%	78%
UA 2749 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	MSP 14:20	15%	5%	0.6%	78%
DL 1567 Delta Flight history →	ORD 12:27	MSP 14:10	15%	5%	0.7%	67%
AA 4425 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 15:43	MSP 17:32	16%	6%	0.9%	74%
UA 2298 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	MSP 16:13	17%	6%	0.6%	74%
DL 2130 Delta Flight history →	ORD 20:21	MSP 22:12	18%	9%	0.7%	59%
UA 2005 United Flight history →	ORD 19:57	MSP 21:41	19%	6%	0.6%	58%
UA 5871 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:03	MSP 17:53	19%	9%	0.8%	76%
UA 1131 United Flight history →	ORD 21:28	MSP 23:10	20%	5%	0.6%	59%
DL 1533 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:55	MSP 17:40	21%	8%	0.7%	62%
DL 1306 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:54	MSP 19:31	26%	9%	0.7%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON