Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4748 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 4748 ORD 09:30 → MSY 12:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2198 ORD 14:20 → MSY 16:47 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4748 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:30	MSY 12:05	9%	3%	0.8%	90%
UA 3658 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 14:05	MSY 16:49	13%	5%	1.0%	78%
UA 1850 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	MSY 12:55	16%	5%	0.7%	95%worse than usual
UA 1761 United Flight history →	ORD 20:11	MSY 22:46	19%	9%	6.6%	63%
AA 3896 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:20	MSY 23:47	28%	7%	4.7%	62%
AA 2198 American Flight history →	ORD 14:20	MSY 16:47	29%	9%	1.5%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON