Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3733 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:00	MYR 12:22	12%	4%	1.9%	95%
UA 1332 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	MYR 14:19	15%	8%	0.8%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	3h 10m Charlotte	CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	6h 29m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	6h 30m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	ORD 08:27 → MSP 10:02DL 1554	2h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 12:56 → MYR 16:40DL 2327	7h 13m	97%	84%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → PHL 08:05AA 2970	2h 48m Philadelphia	PHL 10:53 → MYR 13:02AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont	7h 02m	97%	80%
United Details →	ORD 08:40 → EWR 12:06UA 2301	3h 49m Newark	EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic	8h 23m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	ORD 08:03 → ATL 11:06DL 2426	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 14:12 → MYR 15:27DL 2467	6h 24m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	6h 47m	99%	76%
American Details →	ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:59 → MYR 15:37AA 2213	8h 33m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORD 13:59 → BOS 17:38AA 1554	52m Boston	BOS 18:30 → MYR 20:55AA 3341 · flown by Envoy	5h 56m	67%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON