tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Portland, leaving 14:12, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325 3h 07m Portland PDX 19:54 → OAK 21:41AS 2036 · flown by Horizon 9h 29m 98% 88%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 06:20 → SAN 08:54AS 1470 3h 36m San Diego SAN 12:30 → OAK 14:10AS 3218 · flown by SkyWest 9h 50m 99% 76%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 06:00 → SEA 08:38AS 715 3h 03m Seattle SEA 11:41 → OAK 13:59AS 1328 9h 59m 99% 66%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 13:01 → SEA 15:42AS 579 1h 43m Seattle SEA 17:25 → OAK 19:33AS 706 8h 32m 81% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325 46m Portland PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon 7h 11m 62% 61%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 08:02 → SEA 10:37AS 587 1h 04m Seattle SEA 11:41 → OAK 13:59AS 1328 7h 57m 74% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON