Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5614 at 09:03 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 5614 ORD 09:03 → OKC 11:40 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 6487 ORD 18:29 → OKC 20:49 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5614 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:03	OKC 11:40	14%	6%	0.9%	89%
UA 5999 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:45	OKC 15:17	16%	9%	0.9%	83%
AA 6204 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:16	OKC 10:34	16%	6%	0.9%	77%
UA 5392 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:45	OKC 22:17	21%	13%	1.1%	73%
AA 6273 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:29	OKC 14:48	22%	11%	0.9%	71%
UA 4766 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:35	OKC 18:05	22%	12%	0.9%	73%
AA 6274 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:37	OKC 18:59	23%	13%	1.1%	69%
AA 6487 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:29	OKC 20:49	25%	14%	1.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON