Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3739 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3739 ORD 09:30 → OMA 11:18 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3198 ORD 23:00 → OMA 00:37 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3739 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:30	OMA 11:18	8%	2%	0.9%	89%
UA 1778 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	OMA 10:27	9%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 4724 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:06	OMA 17:56	10%	4%	0.8%	85%
UA 247 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	OMA 14:17	13%	4%	0.6%	78%
AA 3738 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:30	OMA 19:18	14%	5%	1.0%	79%
UA 5589 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:25	OMA 12:16	15%	6%	0.8%	76%
UA 2207 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	OMA 17:28	15%	6%	0.6%	72%
UA 1625 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	OMA 23:14	16%	7%	0.6%	52%
UA 5777 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:00	OMA 19:49	19%	9%	1.0%	57%
AA 3198 American Flight history →	ORD 23:00	OMA 00:37	23%	7%	0.7%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON