Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 658 United Flight history →	ORD 20:18	ONT 22:51	20%	8%	0.6%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 43m Denver	DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430	8h 47m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:21 → ONT 12:10DL 3172	6h 25m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	52m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 08m	92%	80%
United Details →	ORD 14:15 → IAH 17:20UA 2451	3h 11m Houston	IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563	9h 40m	98%	77%
American Details →	ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769	1h 36m Phoenix	PHX 10:45 → ONT 12:02AA 2244	6h 37m	92%	76%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:40 → ONT 11:45AA 2242	8h 45m	99%	76%
United Details →	ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47UA 246	1h 53m San Francisco	SFO 10:40 → ONT 12:12UA 2661	8h 02m	98%	73%
American Details →	ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896	3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:22AA 2239	9h 18m	98%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORD 14:25 → PHX 16:09AA 1384	55m Phoenix	PHX 17:04 → ONT 18:18AA 2639	5h 53m	68%	48%
Delta Details →	ORD 19:40 → SLC 22:11DL 2376	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	6h 08m	56%	48%
American Details →	ORD 19:24 → DFW 22:06AA 3544 · flown by Envoy	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:52 → ONT 23:59AA 1534	6h 35m	72%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON