Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4643 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 4643 ORD 08:00 → ORF 11:28 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 5686 ORD 18:15 → ORF 21:43 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4643 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:00	ORF 11:28	7%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 5477 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:45	ORF 10:07	10%	4%	0.9%	81%
UA 5449 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:22	ORF 15:50	17%	7%	0.9%	83%
AA 4510 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:29	ORF 22:54	17%	4%	0.7%	76%
AA 4164 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:52	ORF 18:16	20%	4%	1.1%	87%
UA 5686 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:15	ORF 21:43	27%	9%	1.0%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON