Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2300 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2300 ORD 07:00 → PDX 09:34 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2977 ORD 19:20 → PDX 21:50 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2300 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	PDX 09:34	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 1994 United Flight history →	ORD 09:00	PDX 11:38	10%	3%	0.6%	85%
AS 413 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 07:20	PDX 09:45	13%	2%	0.7%	79%
AA 2284 American Flight history →	ORD 08:00	PDX 10:36	14%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 2817 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	PDX 15:57	16%	6%	0.6%	81%
UA 1677 United Flight history →	ORD 16:15	PDX 18:47	19%	6%	0.6%	57%
UA 2738 United Flight history →	ORD 19:55	PDX 22:30	20%	6%	0.6%	69%
AA 2545 American Flight history →	ORD 12:10	PDX 14:40	21%	6%	0.7%	65%
AS 325 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 14:12	PDX 16:47	21%	4%	0.7%	72%
AA 1317 American Flight history →	ORD 22:15	PDX 00:50	25%	6%	0.7%	54%
AA 2977 American Flight history →	ORD 19:20	PDX 21:50	30%	7%	0.7%	52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → PDX 10:41DL 2415	6h 11m	91%	85%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 25m	90%	80%
Delta Details →	ORD 08:27 → MSP 10:02DL 1554	58m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → PDX 12:38DL 2167	6h 11m	85%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON