Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2970 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 2970 ORD 05:00 → PHL 08:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2112 ORD 20:58 → PHL 00:21 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2970 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	PHL 08:05	6%	2%	0.9%	90%
UA 2038 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	PHL 10:30	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
AA 2115 American Flight history →	ORD 06:37	PHL 09:48	11%	3%	0.9%	76%
UA 2752 United Flight history →	ORD 09:06	PHL 12:25	13%	4%	0.6%	78%
AA 471 American Flight history →	ORD 08:29	PHL 11:41	13%	4%	0.8%	80%
UA 2182 United Flight history →	ORD 11:33	PHL 14:47	15%	5%	0.6%	79%
UA 1744 United Flight history →	ORD 21:45	PHL 00:57	18%	6%	0.6%	74%
AA 1743 American Flight history →	ORD 11:40	PHL 14:54	19%	6%	0.9%	74%
UA 2430 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	PHL 17:52	20%	7%	0.7%	69%
AA 1859 American Flight history →	ORD 13:29	PHL 16:46	22%	7%	0.8%	68%
UA 1776 United Flight history →	ORD 17:59	PHL 21:19	23%	8%	0.6%	61%
AA 490 American Flight history →	ORD 21:45	PHL 00:59	27%	7%	1.0%	56%
AA 2819 American Flight history →	ORD 15:29	PHL 18:47	27%	9%	0.9%	59%
AA 2443 American Flight history →	ORD 18:40	PHL 21:58	29%	10%	1.0%	59%
AA 1848 American Flight history →	ORD 17:07	PHL 20:25	30%	10%	0.9%	59%
F9 2112 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 20:58	PHL 00:21	41%	16%	1.3%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON